Returning to work: the war that is coming

Employers and employees are at loggerheads about whether and how often to come back to the office, and the situation is likely to get worse. Center Director Jeffrey Cole explains.

By Jeffrey Cole

Five of the seven sectors of life that we track in our COVID Reset Project (communities, shopping, learning, travel and entertainment) are sorted out and resolved as we come out of the pandemic (and we think we are indeed coming out, no matter what anyone at the CDC might have to say about it).

This time: the workplace

Far from being close to settled, a war is brewing over returning to the workplace, with different parties already drawing battle lines. Elon Musk, who is never a good barometer of normal behavior but a good bellwether for change, previewed the war when he said to Tesla workers reluctant to fully return to the office, “Anyone who wishes to do remote work must be in the office for a minimum (and I mean *minimum*) of 40 hours per week or depart Tesla.”

Few workers are ready now, or perhaps ever, to return full-time to the office. The Center’s work in the early days of COVID showed that only 10% wanted pre-pandemic work schedules, while 30% never wanted to return to the workplace. A few months into the pandemic was enough to convince 60% of workers that they would like a hybrid future—coming into the office only some of the time.

Over two years without a workforce in the office was enough to convince most employers that they want everyone back. Some bosses want to walk the hallways and see the troops. Some believe less work with worse quality occurs at home.

This proposition needs to be rigorously evaluated.

What everyone agrees on is that significant numbers of employees working from home will change, perhaps eradicate, a company’s personality and culture.

But this too needs to be tested.

Positives and negatives of remote work

Many workers (90% who either never want to come back or want to do so on a hybrid schedule) liked many features of remote work. The lack of a commute was the top advantage. Some workers recovered as much as an extra two hours each day, and those hours were without stress from traffic and other commuters. Also high on the list of reasons for preferring remote work is setting ones own schedule, not having to arrange for childcare (or as much), working at their own pace, and being better connected to family.

The negatives of home working came from a new need to punctuate the days. Instead of a predictable routine coming from the commute, people had to plan a change of scenery to get out of the house. Plus, some employees didn’t have a good workspace at home, or couldn’t get the quiet and privacy needed to do their best work.

Those divided attitudes are why hybrid scheduling seems so appealing.

Back to the office?

In the fall of 2021, it seemed COVID was finally receding. This was just before the Delta variant hit hard. At that time, significant numbers of employers called their teams back to the office.

Note: in this column, I’m focusing on office workers, not the essential employees—nurses, food workers, and others—who worked full-time through lockdown and beyond during COVID.

Many employers settled on a three-days in the office workweek (almost always Tuesday through Thursday) as a first step. It got workers out of the house and away from same four walls they had stared at for well over a year. It also preserved time at home without commuting. Many workers were pleased to come back three days per week, but they did not see it as a first step: they want it to be the last step.

This is a temporary solution to prevent war, but it may quickly erupt into battle. Most employers are not yet ready to join Musk in demanding a full return or else face dismissal. But many are watching closely, delighted that he is willing (even anxious) to test the waters and take the incoming fire.

In July of 2022, few employers other than Musk are willing to force their workers back to the office full-time. They know that with unemployment levels low and the Great Resignation giving so much new-found power to labor, many will not return.

Those who do not leave will file lawsuits claiming the office is unsafe.

Few workers are ready now, or perhaps ever, to return full-time to the office. The Center’s work in the early days of COVID showed that only 10% wanted pre-pandemic work schedules, while 30% never wanted to return to the workplace. A few months into the pandemic was enough to convince 60% of workers that they would like a hybrid future—coming into the office only some of the time.

Companies will have far more power to force people back when COVID levels are near-zero. With numbers at worrisome levels—currently climbing with the most transmissible variant yet emerging—a case for forcing people into public transportation, packed elevators, and then crowded offices is hard to make.

Who wants to come back to the office?

Although there are exceptions, demographics play a role in separating workers who want to return and those who do not.

Younger employees—more comfortable with technology and communicating and collaborating digitally—are less interested in full-time work in person. They are seeking out jobs that allow or encourage remote workdays.

Women, always left with a disproportionate share of housekeeping and childcare, are more interested in flexible schedules. Team members who want to get ahead and one day run the company (of all ages and genders) want to be in front of their bosses where their commitment to work can be seen close-up.

While there is ego in bosses wanting to see their teams back in the office, there is also hypocrisy in workers not wanting to return. Some of those who say they are not ready to return, and feel unsafe returning, are not quarantining at home and wearing masks when they leave. They are going to shopping malls, movie theaters, concerts, restaurants, baseball games, and getting on airplanes, often unmasked.

A cease fire for the next year, but then…

Corporate culture, good and bad, has defined American society for well over a century. It may well be that changes and alternatives are long overdue.

Just before COVID, the Me Too movement had already led to a re-examination of some workplace behaviors. The current upheaval of the workplace may be another example of the kind of change and disruption that comes only from a crisis.

And, if a recession comes over the next few months, as many economists are predicting, it may lead to layoffs, creating less job security. A dismal economic climate will shift power away from labor and back to management.

The workplace is changing. It is just not yet clear if work in America will end up looking like it did in 2019 or like something entirely different.

For now, there is a cease fire that will probably last at least another year. The embers of that fire may fully erupt. We need to be ready if they do.

Next time: health and wellbeing, with a special focus on mental health.
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Jeffrey Cole is the founder and director of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg.

 

 

See all columns from the center.

July 20, 2022