The end of broadcast TV

We’ve never watched more content and less broadcast television. The death of a once-dominant medium, long predicted, is finally at hand.

By Jeffrey Cole

When I was growing up, the arrival of September, in addition to the beginning of autumn, cooler temperatures and getting dark earlier, meant three things: one was not so good, one didn’t matter much, and the third was exciting. The not-so-good annual September event was going back to school; the one that didn’t matter much was GM, Ford and Chrysler introducing their new cars. The exciting one was the premiere of the new network television shows.

Broadcast television is in a devastating downward spiral. It has been this way since the 1990s and each innovation makes it worse. People under the age of thirty do not even think about network television (except for big sports). The audience is getting older and older, leading to an inevitable conclusion.

It’s hard to remember how powerful the three broadcast networks—ABC, CBS, and NBC—were. Much later, after they were already significantly weakened by cable (the first of many technological and social trends that would diminish network importance and profitability), Fox, introduced a fourth network.

More than anything else, far more than movies or literature, the broadcast networks defined our culture. Nothing else came close.

No one could consider a serious run for president without a strategy for broadcast network coverage. That was where the debates were held and the lion’s share of the campaign’s budget went to the networks for advertising.

It was the eight-day release of Roots on ABC in 1977 that ignited a national discussion of slavery and race in America that continues to this day. Similarly, the miniseries Holocaust on NBC brought awareness of the genocide of the Jews to those who knew little about it, as did The Burning Bed to spousal abuse and The Day After to the dangers of nuclear war. Each directly led to changes in laws and policies in the U.S. In the case of Holocaust, the same was true in Germany.

Network television controlled all the major sports and even introduced new rules for time-outs and time between innings to ensure room for lucrative television advertising. Late night comedy shows, especially Johnny Carson’s Tonight Show, created the “water-cooler” conversation the next day at the office. Carson’s off-handed joke about a toilet paper crisis in 1973 led to a real shortage the next day.

The broadcast networks were so dominant that, in 1970, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) felt their power needed to be curtailed. They passed syn-fin (syndication financial) rules that would not let the networks own the shows produced for their airtime. The rules made some producers like Aaron Spelling and Norman Lear immensely wealthy. Although they took a huge financial hit, the networks could easily afford it then.

All are now distant memories.

Every technological innovation (cable, DVDs, PVRs, streaming, email, the web, social media, and smart phones) weakened the broadcast networks. In the 1970s and 80s, a prime time hit could command an audience of forty million or more. Today it would be lucky to see eight million. (Note, too, that our population has grown significantly since the 1980s).

The networks are dying. It is only a matter of time before they disappear completely or merge into the streaming channels owned by their parent companies. (ABC into Disney+, NBC into Peacock, and CBS into Paramount+).

It has been a slow death. In the 1990s, the network’s financial health had so deteriorated that the FCC repealed the 20-year fin-syn rules—allowing the broadcasters once again to own their shows and improve their diminishing profitability. It was too late.

The broadcasters have already lost all their mini-series and television movies to streaming. The most successful comedies have also changed homes. Without sports, almost nothing is left on network television.

James Corden, reluctant trailblazer

The broadcasters are in a death spiral.

Last month, James Corden ended his eight-year run as the host of The Late, Late Show on CBS. He said he wanted to return to the U.K. to be with his family. This was undoubtedly true, but CBS also revealed that it was costing $65 million a year to produce the after-midnight show while advertising was only bringing in $45 million.

The most successful of the three networks cannot afford to produce a late-night show. It will replace Corden’s Late, Late Show with a far less costly game show borrowed from Comedy Central. Had Corden stayed, he would have seen much of his budget cut, forcing him to cut both staff and his own salary. Expect to see other late-night shows severely cut back or eliminated.

It’s hard to remember how powerful the three broadcast networks—ABC, CBS, and NBC—were. Much later, after they were already significantly weakened by cable (the first of many technological and social trends that would diminish network importance and profitability), Fox, introduced a fourth network.  More than anything else, far more than movies or literature, the broadcast networks defined our culture. Nothing else came close.

In prime time—the heart and soul of the networks—new and ominous signs point to devastating cuts in programming. On one of CBS’ solid hits, Bob Hearts Abishola, there are two lead characters and another twelve recurring characters seen in most of the twenty-two episodes produced every year. The show is about to enter its fifth season and each cast member has received considerable salary increases.

To cut costs, CBS has decided to keep the two leads but reduce the recurring characters to a commitment of only five shows each season. They can be used more if the narrative calls for them. This means significant reductions in cast costs. But it also means an entire change in the tone of the program. The writers will create scripts with the new, smaller cast in mind. Creative freedom will suffer. Viewers will notice.

This shrinkage is sure to spread to other—if not all—shows on network television. If this happening to a show produced by Chuck Lorre, the most successful producer (along with Dick Wolf) in television, no shows are safe from severe cuts. Two of Lorre’s shows alone (The Big Bang Theory and Two and a Half Men) have brought immense profits to CBS.

Back in the glory days of broadcast news (at CBS-Edward R. Murrow, Walter Cronkite, and CBS Reports), immense prime-time profits funded the news. As those profits shrank, the news changed in tone and quality. There is nothing making enough money to fund the other less profitable parts of the network. Almost nothing—whether prime-time, late-night, daytime, or elsewhere—is making money. The networks will cut costs everywhere. More unscripted programming without expensive actors (game shows, competition shows) will continue to dominate prime time.

Without big stars and original scripts, many shows will look like programing for public access or YouTube.

In an earlier column, I argued that the loss of sports will accelerate the decline of the networks. Sports is the only television programming that still attracts a large live audience. Of the thirty highest rated television programs of all time, twenty-nine are Super Bowl games. Each year, eighty-four of the top one hundred programs are football; ninety-two are sports. Even with an enormous number of viewers, sports rights are so expensive much of the programming barely makes any money.

For years, the networks bid against each other for the rights to this valuable programming. Now Apple, Amazon, and Google (YouTube) are buying these sports rights. The broadcasters cannot compete with trillion-dollar companies.

Thursday Night Football moved to Amazon Prime. NFL Sunday Ticket is now on YouTube. Baseball and soccer are now on AppleTV+. More sports will flee the broadcast networks. Their loss of the Super Bowl and World Series would raise some political issues, but it is only a matter of time. That is when the networks will collapse.

Broadcast television is in a devastating downward spiral. It has been this way since the 1990s and each innovation makes it worse. People under the age of thirty do not even think about network television (except for big sports). The audience is getting older and older, leading to an inevitable conclusion.

Back when I was a kid, the broadcast networks were something special. They were almost the only way I was informed and entertained. I knew the prime-time schedule by heart.

There are other alternatives, some of them better, some simply different. But something special has been lost. Only those over fifty will notice.
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Jeffrey Cole is the founder and director of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg.

 

 

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May 10, 2023